The NFL's betting boom has morphed into a contentious fight over prediction markets and sport integrity
31 October 2026
As sportsbooks see growth slow, the league and states clash with platforms like Kalshi over regulation and the future of a booming market.
NFL Betting Booms, But growth slows as prediction markets surge
In the last several years, the NFL has become a betting behemoth. The sport brought in $12 billion in wagers in 2022, according to ESPN. But that juggernaut may be losing steam at traditional sportsbooks, even as prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket gain traction.
A mere three years ago, the NFL generated $3 billion more in sportsbook bets, according to ESPN. Its annual growth rate since 2020 is over 30% slower than the 45% compounded in 2020-2022.
The American Gaming Association has pointed to prediction markets as a possible factor in the U.S. sportsbook slowdown. But other things have stalled too: No state has pushed through legal betting since Massachusetts in 2023. Sportsbook industry insiders note competition from other venues and sports, and a tendency for revenue growth to decelerate as a new product matures.
NFL games fuel record prediction-market volumes
Prediction platforms are hitting a different inflection point, with the NFL leading the charge. Over the last two weekends, Kalshi and Polymarket set consecutive record-high trading days, with a two-day total of $1.2 billion traded, much of it on outcomes in NFL and college games, according to figures collected by Yahoo Finance. Kalshi posted its busiest week ever, with $2.1 billion in transactions, up 42% from the previous record set six weeks before.
The NFL figured prominently in the latest trading bonanza, more than half the volume taking place on the first Sunday of the season.
"That shows the depth of demand we're talking about," says James Gurmania, an S&P Global senior industry analyst who studies the sports and gambling industries. "More than $50 a person, on average, put on NFL trades in that one weekend."
Football is propelling growth in financial markets because of the variety of bets it allows and the irresistible appeal of parlays, which innovate on parlays to offer bundles of predictions for a single outcome.
NFL warns prediction markets bring betting threats, margin
But the NFL says prediction markets bring threats to sport integrity that traditional bookmakers are equipped to control, including the risk of trades that are easily manipulated or "knowable in advance."
More on this is available via https://gambling-world.org/.
"A bettor could purchase a contract [predicting] the worst possible outcome for an NFL team, figuring their owner would then have a team interest to lose that game, or a player interest to lose that game," says Brian Rolapp, the league's president and chief operating officer.
Of particular concern to the league are bets tied to injuries, officiating, and field goals, drawing on Rolapp's letter to the CFTC last May, which urged for bans on non-futures bets on easily knowable outcomes, enforceable lists of prohibited participants, and mandatory 21+ age restrictions.
Some NFL concerns, like margin trading, already self-regulate. And prediction platforms have pointed out that their opponents are the energy traders on the Soros line.
For one thing, the platforms note that the recently adopted CFTC. And sports prediction markets have not broken any laws, several court rulings note.
"Polymarket offers primarily non-single-event contracts that are transparent, fully collateralized, and already subject to CFTC jurisdiction," says Polymarket co-founder Tuur Demeester.
When the CFTC finally does craft regulations for event contracts, as anticipated in 2025, it may finally yield a picture of how the prediction market will look going forward.
But officials fear that for now, a laissez-faire federal system could leave room for insider trading, manipulation, and threats to game integrity. It could also undercut the protections states like Nevada have long sought to enforce.
The stakes have no doubt been brought into clarity by the astronomic figures at play, and the inevitability of Supreme Court intervention to steer the industry.